ДЕНЬГИ И КРЕДИТ

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Analysis of Methodology for Calculating Net Private Sector Capital Inflow/Outflow in the System of Empirical Estimates of Capital Flight

Leonova Nina

The paper discusses the various methodologies used in foreign literature for measuring capital flight. It analyses these measurements and compare them with methodology used by Bank of Russia for calculating net inflows/outflows of capital by private sector. It explores possible application of these measurements for estimating the scale of capital flight from Russia and correlation of such estimates based on balance of payments data over 2005-2015 with the indicator of the Bank of Russia.

Anniversary of Yuan Inclusion in SDR Basket: First Results

Polivach Aleksandr

This article reviews events, which took place during the year since renminbi was included in the SDR basket and which can be considered as consequences of this decision. Also it covers the scale of renminbi internationalisation achieved by the current time. The author came to conclusion that international usage of the renminbi did not grow significantly during the last year, but in some aspects it even decreased.

Blockchain Technology: Essence, Types, Application in Russia

Nurmukhametov Rim, Stepanov Pavel, Novikova Tamara

In the article features, types and stages of the development of blockchain technology are considered. The concepts of «blockchain technology» and «crypto-currency» are differentiated. The analysis of a number of experiments of Russian banks on the use of blockchain in various banking operations was carried out.

Comparison of Direct and Indirect Methods of Seasonal Adjustment of Monetary Aggregates of the Russian Federation

Kudra Aleksey

As a rule, time series of monetary aggregates have significant seasonal fluctuations. While seasonally adjusting aggregate indicators a decision should be made, whether it is better to adjust aggregate time series directly or initially adjust component time series and sum them into the total aggregate indicator. The work describes the approach to seasonal adjustment of monetary aggregates M2 (Money Supply, national definition) and Broad Money, the check of stability of the seasonally adjusted values and the choice of the optimal method.

Electronic Payment Services and Anti-money Laundering

Revenkov Pavel, Lipatov Aleksandr

The article discusses issues related to the use of technologies of remote banking service with the use of payment services, electronic instruments of payment, including electronic banking services, as well as risks associated with their use cybercrime for money laundering.

Global Challenges in Payments Industry: «Technological Unemployment» Problem and Universal Basic Approach as a Possible Scenario of Its Solution

Kuznetsov Vadim

The article deals with topical issues related to the introduction of the Universal Basic Income (on the example of international experience) in order to reduce the acute social problems caused by the rapid development of technology.

Global Monetary Liquidity: Theory, Indicators, Trends

Burlachkov Vladimir, Golovnin Mikhail, Tikhonov Anatoly

The article analyzes different approaches to determining global liquidity, revealing its significance for the sustainable functioning of the global financial market; the estimation of the basic tendencies in dynamics of global liquidity in 2000-2016 is given. The necessity of dividing between the concepts of global financial and monetary liquidity is substantiated. The role of “parallel banking” and offshore financial centers in the formation of global financial liquidity is revealed. The specifics of the cyclical dynamics of financial instruments classified as «money-like» are disclosed. Theoretical interrelations of the formation of global monetary liquidity with the evolution of the monetary mechanism in the modern economy are disclosed. Conclusions are drawn about the slowing of global liquidity's growth rates in the post-crisis period, the change in its structure (the growth of the share of debt securities and the growth of the dollar component) based on the estimations of global liquidity according to the Bank for International Settlements. A growing redistribution of global liquidity in favor of developing countries and emerging markets is shown. Author's proposals for assessing global liquidity are given, taking into account the Basel capital adequacy ratios.

IFRS 9: Opportunities and Threats (Point of View)

Simanovsky Aleksey

Impact of Macroeconomic and Market Factors on Russia''s Sovereign CDS Spread

Konygin Sergey, Vinogradov Artem

The article investigates the effect of macroeconomic indicators on Russia's CDS sovereign spread. The latest studies on Russia's case highlighted the impact of economic and financial background and global tendencies on sovereign CDS spread. In order to obtain significant factors, the ARMA-X for mean spread and GJR-GARCH for spread volatility were applied on the latest monthly and quarterly data. The econometric assessment carried out in the research revealed several significant factors: external factor, domestic factor, and uncertainty factor. The result was obtained for the whole sample. For the subsample before anti-Russian sanctions, domestic factors became insignificant. Significant factors included the following variables with the most factor loadings: the change in the gross international reserves of the Bank of Russia, emerging markets CDS, EMBI+, external debt, real effective rouble exchange rate, real GDP, OFZ yield, basic sectors output, implied rouble volatility, and Amihud illiquidity measure. Quantitative assessment has revealed the significant impact of CDS of developing countries, implied rouble volatility and the yield of Russian bonds.

Inflation Management: Drivers of Changes

Khesin Yefim

In the decade that followed the global economic crisis of 2007-09 reflationary forces have been replaced by deflationary ones. Low inflation substantially complicated inflation management. Most central banks in advanced economies deployed new unconventional instruments to affect credit conditions and to provide liquidity at a large scale after short term policy rates reached their effective lower bound. Nowadays deflationary pressures are receding, but core inflation remains subdued and still below target. In such an environment the Phillips Curve relationship - the trade-off between unemployment and inflation - the theoretical basis for understanding inflation used in central banks - has largely broken down and there has been significant questioning of its usefulness predicting inflation. The article attempts to show, firstly, that low inflation is the result of great changes in the global economic and financial landscape. They are, first of all, structural, demographic and social changes, globalization and financialization of economy, technological innovations, rising debt, uncertainty over inflation. Secondly, monetary measures should be supported by all policy tools - fiscal, macroprudential policies and structural reforms - both individually and collectively used. The recent global economic upswing is laying hopes for allowing central banks to eventually return their monetary policies to normal settings but this process will be gradual and may take several years. One cannot exclude that unconventional monetary policies still will be used when economic conditions and interest rates normalize.

Raising Financial Literacy of a Region''s Population

Dmitriyeva Olga, Dmitriyeva Nadezhda, Krylov Vyachaslav

This article summarizes the theoretical aspects of the concept of financial literacy. Priority directions of activity of the state, the Bank of Russia, and financial organizations aimed at increasing the financial literacy of Russian citizens have been identified. A review of the activities carried out in the Chuvash Republic in the area of improving the financial literacy of the population of the region.

Russian and Foreign Investment Fund Market: Similarities and Differences

Zhurbin Mikhail, Merekina Yelena

Classification of the Russian funds and their characteristics is of great importance for increase of their investment appeal and development of the financial market. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate the application of the foreign classification of the funds on the Russian market and also to determine the investment characteristics of the funds, taking into account peculiarities of the Russian environment, to find out which funds can be considered as an alternative. All this will facilitate the choice of the investor who wants to invest in Russian as well as in foreign funds.

Specifics of Foreign Lending to Russian Non-bank Institutions

Kharlashin Fedor

The article is devoted to the characteristics of lending by non-residents to Russian corporations (other than banks). A quantitative and qualitative assessment is given for such types of foreign lending as loans received through the issuance of Eurobonds, bank loans, and for the phenomenon of debt reorganization, for the period from July 2016 to June 2017. International approaches to accounting of certain types of debt reorganization and estimation of payment schedule components are reviewed, the cost of the largest external borrowings is calculated. The principles of foreign lending are explored in the context of the statistical activity at the Bank of Russia: external debt burden is analyzed within the relevant balance of payments items and international investment position of the Russian Federation. The article concludes that the debt reorganization has a high weight in the borrowings and repayments of Russian non-banking corporations, and that new loans are not enough to refinance current liabilities.

Specifics of Microdata-based Statistics of Interest Rates on Lending to Non-financial Sector

Dyachkov Dmitry, Nurimanova Irina

The article is devoted to the analysis of multidimensional empirical data on distribution of interest rates on loans and highlighting of the homogeneous groups and atypical behavior of weighted average interest rates as a result of unique conditions of loan contracts. Based on comprehensive data on loans, the following homogenous groups of interest rates were determined: by loan type, maturity, business size, loan quality and insurance. The study of interest rates identified clusters of excessively high or low values that, in the authors' view, should be eliminated from the calculation of interest rates on loans for macroeconomic analysis.

Statistics of Individuals'' Cross-border Remittances. Methodological Approaches and Analytical Opportunities

Navoy Anton, Shalunova Lubov

The article analyzes the dynamics and structure of cross-border remittances of individuals in the global economy and the place of Russia in the system of household money transfers. The methodological and theoretical aspects of accounting for cross-border transfers are considered, a detailed picture of the movement of individuals' funds to the global territory, their genesis including trends in international migration of the population as the basis for the formation of financial flows between households is given. The connection of international trends with the main characteristics of remittances in the Russian Federation is presented. Based on the statistics of cross-border money transfers developed by the Bank of Russia, the main aspects and specific features of financial flows between Russian households and non-CIS countries, the CIS and EEA countries, highlighted the methodological nuances and peculiarities of organizing money transfers in the Russian Federation, transfers as the main channel for the distribution of financial and labor resources in the EEA. A conclusion was made about the importance of cross-border remittance statistics as an analytical tool for assessing the role of financial flows between households.

Structural and Legal Aspects of Single Resolution Mechanism in EU

Topornin Nikolay, Osokina Yelena

In this article the authors examine the main features and particular elements of the mechanism to increase stability of credit institutions in the European Union. The world economic and financial crisis 2008-2010 clearly revealed that because of instability in financial markets separate banking and financial organisations as well as the whole economy are affected. Such state of things couldn't suit the EU and European Central Bank authorities so in 2012 they decided to develop mechanisms allowing to maintain financial stability of banks without spending public money. These mechanisms were laid down in the Banking Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) 2014, which became one of the most important elements of the European Banking Union - new chain in the framework of European integration.

Theory of Money Origin and Cryptocurrencies

Dubyansky Aleksandr

In Russian economic literature devoted to monetary problems not enough attention is paid to questions of the origin of money, though these issues are very important for understanding the nature of money. The article discusses the issues connected with the theory of the origin of money in conjunction with the advent of modern cryptocurrency. The author believes that the evolutionary theory of the origin of money generally accepted in modern Economics cannot be considered wealthy.

Tree-Dimensional Representation of Financial Flows and Inventories in the System of National Accounts

Zhuravleva Ksenia

The article is devoted to three-dimensional tables system of financial flows and stocks («from-whom-to-whom» tables) which is used for the analysis of financial stability of institutional sectors and for the description of the current situation in the economy. The article describes the concept of «from-whom-to-whom» tables, possible ways of use for the analysis of the economy at macro level, the special attention is given to the compilation methods of these tables. The author introduces the method to estimate all elements of «from-whom-to-whom» matrix in condition of partly known matrix elements.

World Oil Derivatives Market: Development Amid Stricter Regulation

Zhukov Stanislav, Maslennikov Aleksandr

Exchange-traded and OTC segments of the world oil derivatives market demonstrate different dynamics under increasingly stringent regulatory restrictions. The futures market of «paper oil» continues to grow during both downward and upward oil price cycles. Turnover of over-the-counter commodity derivatives, on the contrary, is consistently diminishing. The largest banks have substantially reduced or quit physical commodities business, including oil and oil products, but retained the leading position as swap dealers in over-the-counter oil derivatives market. Non-financial companies including British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell and Cargill began to enter the derivatives market as swap dealers. The new US administration may weaken the enforcement practices of the Dodd-Frank Act. In any case, derivatives market is going to keep its leading role in the price discovery mechanism for crude oil.

УКАЗАТЕЛЬ СТАТЕЙ И КОРРЕСПОНДЕНЦИЙ, ОПУБЛИКОВАННЫХ В ЖУРНАЛЕ «ДЕНЬГИ И КРЕДИТ» В 2017 ГОДУ

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