Проблемы теории и практики управления


A Change in Macroeconomic Policy to Ensure Economic Growth in 2018–2024

Sukharev Oleg

The author summarizes selected results of the policy of 2015–2016 crisis resolution and of 2017 recovery growth. The trends of macrostructural influences are defined, they are to be taken into consideration when practicing monetary and fiscal policies and also the investment strategy of Russian economy growth in 2018–2024. Limitations of the so called saving-and-investment growth model are researched. The model presupposes to restore the consumption level and aggregate demand in line with resolving problems of investment in new foundations and investment distribution among old and new technologies. The conclusion is drawn that the monetary and budgetary policies now underway should contribute to create a multiplying effect thanks to the change in the regime of resources flow among existing alternatives.

Economic Growth Quality in 2017 - A Move to a Medium-Term Stable Trend or a Return to Stagnation?

Vedev Alexei

The article shows that in late 2014 the Russian economy faced three negative shocks: slumping oil prices, introduction of sanctions and accumulated structural problems. In the author's opinion, the slowdown in economic growth rates under high oil prices was largely determined by decreasing efficiency of Russian economy and its rising costs. One of the key factors in GDP decline was the reduced final demand of households. As a result, in many parameters the Russian economy returned to pre-crisis trends that caused production decline. The author holds that the current growth is restorative, corrective and unstable.

Federal Development Agency: It Is Needed to Design and Implement Successful Strategies

Polterovich Victor

The author shows that an important role in the success of a catch-up development was played by special institutions — general development agencies, which coordinated the activities of ministries and departments. The functions of these agencies are examined, main tasks are formulated to be solved by a similar Russian Federal Development Agency (FAR). The setting up in late 2016 of the Project Department in the Central Office of the Russian Federation’s Government can be regarded as the first stage of FAR creation. A number of further steps in its formation are advanced.

On New Economic Approaches amid New Risks

Ershov Mikhail

The article examines main external risks for the Russian economy that are related to possible exacerbations in world economy and to geopolitical conflicts. In the author's opinion, under such conditions it is necessary to ensure stable internal mechanisms for the development of Russian economy which will help neutralize these risks. To prevent a negative impact of foreign sources of financial resources on Russian economy it is important to ensure the priority role of domestic sources of monetization. Diversified solutions are needed, they should include interest rates relief, tax incentives and higher real disposable incomes of the population.

On Scientific Substantiation of Monetary Policy

Manevich Vitaly

The article states that it is not the rate on credit operations but the rate of deposit operations of the Central Bank which, with a minimum time lag, impact immediately on the entire range of interest rates. The author believes that under current conditions the Central Bank can effectively influence the interest rates on deposits, bank loans and other financial assets by lowering the rate on its deposit operations. He analyzes to what extent the declared free floating of the ruble is really implemented, whether the monetary authorities have real impact on supply and demand of foreign currency on the domestic market, and thus, on the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate. He demonstrates that the part of the budget surplus not used for any rational purposes finds its reflection in the reduction of the monetary base, in other words, “slips through a crack”.

On the Way to “Economize” Russian Economic Policy 2018–2024

Eskindarov Mikhail

The author’s standpoint is unveiled according to which Russian economic policy “has lost” its economic content as such, and has been assigned to institutions and processes of non-economic type. This is an unacceptable luxury in the modern period of global transformation amid turbulence and uncertainty. Deep uncontrollable integration of Russian economy into global value chains has not entailed efficiency growth, but has instead stimulated technological lagging. Industrial policy strategically framed has to become basic for the agenda of the next period. For this purpose it is imperative to launch an effective mechanism of monetary as well as budgetary and tax policies coordination.

Priorities of Russian Economic Policy (Between Competition and Monopoly, Free-Trade System and Protectionism)

Ayrapetyan Mamikon

The main priorities of economic policy are formulated, whose implementation is the main condition for restoring economic growth in Russia in the coming years (2018–2024) at a level sufficient to mitigate critical processes and curb further deterioration of the condition the economy is in. The author substantiates that these priorities depend on the political choice between competition and monopoly, free trade and protectionism, and this choice should be made in an extremely difficult situation, on the eve of the global economic crisis after 2020. It means, according to the author, that since 2015 the world and the Russian economies find themselves within a pre-crisis development paradigm and will therefore design a pre-crisis economic policy in the years to come.

Russian Economy: Challenges, Scenarios, Strategy of Growth

Mirkin Yakov

The author studies the model of Russian economy and the main challenges it faces. He proposes four scenarios of the future (2018–2025), estimates the probabilities of their implementation and goes into detail describing the economic and financial policies that constitute them. He pays particular attention to “New Deal” (“Unexpected Turn”) scenario associated with the transition of the Russian economy to rapid-fire growth. The description of the main ideas, financial sources of growth, basic arrangements in administrative, economic, institutional and financial policies within the framework of “New Deal” scenario is presented. The author defines target indicators that macroeconomy should achieve to be in the condition of rapid-fire growth.

Selected Issues of Medium-Term State Property Management

Danilov-Danilyan Anton

The article considers the current level and the observed vectors of public sector expansion in the Russian economy. Viable boundaries for this expansion are proved. Arguments in favor of cases of justified increase of the governmental share are formulated, specific examples are cited. The reasons for general inefficiency of state property are stated. Proposals on institutional decisions aimed at economically justifiable reduction of the public sector volume are advanced, in particular by means of: narrowing the time-limits for ownership of certain state assets; by introducing of the “third wheel” rule for mixed markets; by expanding cooperation opportunities for enterprises of the military-industrial complex; by expropriating part of super-profits of state-controlled enterprises; by selling objects taken on lease by private companies from public sector entities.

Spatial Development Policy of the Russian Economy

Bukhvald Evgeni

The experience of designing the theory and methodology of strategic planning, the entire system of its relevant records is generalized, it shows that one of the most important tasks of Russian economic policy in the medium-term perspective will be spatial structure regulation of the economy. The author evaluates as key state policy objectives in this area the following items: preservation of the country’s integral economic space; consistent positive reduction of economic gaps between Russian Federation’s constituents; points of growth formation and innovative modernization of Russian economy. All this requires perspicuous goal-setting in the regional development policy and also concerted actions on the part of all institutions and instruments of state governance implementing these goals.

Structural Aspects of Long-Term Economic Policy

Ivanter Victor, Porfiryev Boris, Shirov Alexander

The article analyzes the main trends of Russian economic development and works out solutions in the field of economic policy up to 2024. It states that the main problems of current Russian economy are due to structural imbalances, and to overcome them a set of special measures in the framework of structural and investment policy is required. The authors prove that, under existing economic limitations, the most acceptable long-term strategy is a combination of strategic and project management methods through creating a package of big national projects.

The Focus of Governmental Incentives on Russian Innovative Manufacturing

Bogachev Yuri, Tolkachev Sergei, Teplyakov Artem

Innovation problems both in the Russian economy in general and in the national manufacturing sector in particular are researched. The authors argue that the innovative profile of manufacturing productions is critical for long-term development of the economy. The analysis carried out in the article showed that the highest absolute indicators of innovative activity are demonstrated by low-level medium-tech industries. This state of affairs along with other characteristics of Russian economy evidence, in essence, the reproduction system of “technological backwardness” established in the country. To solve the problem the authors give a number of recommendations on changing the focus of governmental innovative incentives in Russia’s manufacturing sector, with regard to the sanction regime under which the national economy is now.

The Luster and Misery of Programming in the Economic Policy of Regional Development

Yerznkyan Bagrat, Magomedov Ruslan

The authors investigate a series of issues linked with applying methods of program-targeted planning and management methods, which to a great extent predetermine a successful economic policy. The sense of their effective use is revealed in the adequacy of program methods to problems to be solved: some of them can be solved routinely, other, on the contrary, need a program solution, whereas the degree of significance of the problems is unsubstantial. An additional factor of success is the consideration of the specifics of the institutional system and of the regional technical and economic development dynamically.

The Third Socioeconomic Development Concept: The Goal-Setting Problem

Sorokin Dmitry

The country’s socioeconomic development concept for the coming period as the third attempt to define strategic development benchmarks is researched. The author holds that the viability of this attempt is largely determined by the results and the experience gained in the course of implementing similar guidelines of 2000 and 2008. Analysis of these results shows that the country failed to build up a competitive technological foundation of the economy as the main condition for sustainable development in strategic perspective. To cope with the challenges triggered by this situation it is necessary that a new concept defined — as absolute priority of socioeconomic strategy — its central focus on technological re-equipment of the economy.

Why Does the Russian Economy Make No Headway?

Aganbegyan Abel

The article considers the results of Russia’s development from 1991 to 2017. The author identifies here three main periods: 1991–2008 transformation crisis, recovery socioeconomic growth of 1999–2008 and the decade of global crisis, recession and stagnation from 2009 to 2018. Analysis shows that over these years the Russian economy shifted to stagnation instead of economic growth. The author holds that the main reason for the current problems lies in the fact that we have not been moving to a civilized market with its in-built economic powerhouse — through competition, stimulation, reproduction of capital investment and investment in human capital, that is, in economic growth sources. He proposes to return to national economic planning, which might be directive for governmental institutions.

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