BP Global Energy Outlook 2030

Rühl Christof

This paper presents the highlights of the third annual edition of the BP Energy Outlook, which sets out BP’s view of the most likely developments in global energy markets to 2030, based on up-to-date analysis and taking into account developments of the past year. The Outlook’s overall expectation for growth in global energy demand is to be 36% higher in 2030 than in 2011 and almost all the growth coming from emerging economies. It also reflects shifting expectations of the pattern of supply, with unconventional sources — shale gas and tight oil together with heavy oil and biofuels — playing an increasingly important role and, in particular, transforming the energy balance of the US. While the fuel mix is evolving, fossil fuels will continue to be dominant. Oil, gas and coal are expected to converge on market shares of around 26—28% each by 2030, and non-fossil fuels — nuclear, hydro and renewables — on a share of around 6—7% each. By 2030, increasing production and moderating demand will result in the US being 99% self-sufficient in net energy. Meanwhile, with continuing steep economic growth, major emerging economies such as China and India will become increasingly reliant on energy imports. These shifts will have major impacts on trade balances.

Economic Incentives and Social Preferences: Substitutes or Complements?

Bowles Samuel, Polanía-Reyes Sandra

In the second part of the paper concrete forms and examples of the effects of incentives on the social preferences are shown and experiments are described where these effects occur. The authors claim that the negative consequences of the incentives are connected less to the incentives themselves as, rather, with their perceptions among the agents. That is why for a reasonable use of incentives one has to take account of possible effects of such perceptions.

Factors of economic development and structural reforms in Russia

Zuev Vasily

The article describes issues of structural reforms implementation in Russia directed at forming favorable institutional environment and business climate, as well as macroeconomic financial stability. The author analyzes the derivatives market, compared with the world’s GDP and considers regularities for the global market of mergers and acquisitions as modern crisis indicators in the global economy. The state of the Russian economy, the balance of payments of RF, international investment position and other macroeconomic parameters are analyzed, as well as the influence of cross-border capital flows and the demographic factor on sustainable development of the Russian economy. A model of the system of managing sustainable socio-economic development together with participation of development institutions is presented.

Non-Public Monetary Systems in information Economy

Krasilnikov Oleg, Krasilnikova Elena

The article discusses the development of non-public monetary systems (NPMS), defined as a specific economic institution. It presents their comparison with public money systems depending on the size of transaction costs. The authors come to the conclusion that in conditions of the information economy on the basis of Internet-technologies NPMS receive a new impetus to their development and can make serious competition in regard to public monetary systems.

Problems of the US Economic Policy

Klinov Vilenin

How to provide for full employment and equitable distribution of incomes and wealth are the keenest issues of the U.S. society. The Democratic and the Republican Parties have elaborated opposing views on economic policy, though both parties are certain that the problems may be resolved through the reform of the federal tax and budget systems. Globalization demands to increase incentives for labor and enterprise activity and for savings to secure proper investment rate. Tax rates for labor and enterprise incomes are to be low, but tax rates for consumption, real estate and land should be progressive.

Russian big business facing challenges of the global crisis

Afontsev Sergey, Lee Sang Joon

The article addresses factors that allowed large Russian companies to withstand the economic crisis, as well as prospects for their business expansion in the post-crisis setting. While anti-crisis policies adopted by Russian government supported big business substantially during the first months of the recession, they hardly played any pro-business role since mid-2009. The analysis of capitalization figures and sales volumes shows that leading positions of state-owned companies in oil, gas and financial sectors were in fact strengthened during the crisis. Excessive state control over corporate assets and decision-making works as a barrier to post-crisis recovery of large Russian companies and should be substituted for by policies supporting internationalization strategies and productivity improvements.

Socio-Economics as an Urgent basis of interdisciplinary integration(On the Book by M. A. Shabanova “Socio-Economics”)

Zaslavskaya Tatiyana

The necessity of interdisciplinary integration of social sciences is recently being discussed more and more, but its grounds remain unclear. Using the example of a new version of socio-economics as a branch of science and an academic subject born as a reaction to public practice challenges, the author considers the basis and problems of integration of economics with other social sciences, discusses major barriers on the way of interdisciplinary dialogue and how to overcome them.

Will a New Model of Economic GrowthTake Place in Russia?

Yasin Yevgeny, Akindinova Nataliya, Yakobson Lev, Yakovlev Andrey

Given the present level of institutional quality and the significant role of the government sector in the economy, the Russian Federation has depleted the potential of the current model of growth which is based on commodity exports. The dramatic deceleration of the GDP growth rate down to less than 2% in the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013 bears the evidence to this proposition. At the moment, the government considers the choice between expansionist and conservative scenarios, which both lie on the assumption of long-term conservation of existing imperfect institutions. However, according to our estimates, it is impossible to create a new model of growth ignoring the role of private initiative, healthy institutions of market economy and investment in human capital. We distinguish two groups that are increasing their influence nowadays and can potentially become the driving force of a new model of Russian economic growth: “new business”, dynamic companies that are oriented at the development in the market conditions but lack incentive to invest within existing institutional framework; “new bureaucracy”, consisting of progressive regional elites, who are interested in the development of their area, and efficient professionals of the federal level.

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