Вопросы экономики


Arguments for the Ruble Exchange Rate Management

Andryushin Sergey

The paper discusses the target guides and the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy operational instruments. Events of 2014-2015 showed that the inflation targeting regime is not an effective target guide of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy. The key interest rate fails to reflect the proper price of holding and using of financial resources of households, financial and non-financial organizations. The floating exchange rate regime has not become an automatic mechanism of external shocks absorption, but intensifies the exchange rate volatility instead. The exchange rate management is the only effective regime for the current Bank of Russia’s monetary policy.

Neurobiology and New Opportunities for Experimental Economics

Rakviashvili Alexander

The article appraises the first achievements of the new branch of interdisciplinary research in the intersection of neurobiology and economics. The analysis of the main results of the new studies and the key areas of criticism of neuroeconomics are presented. The author claims that despite a number of interesting results, neuroeconomics will not be able to radically change economics due to methodological limitations and because of significant differences in the research subjects in neurobiology and economics.

Russian Agricultural Sector in the "War of Sanctions"

Frumkin Boris

The article analyzes the consequences of the sanctions introduced by the West as well as by Russia (counter-sanctions) for Russian agri-food complex. The aftereffects are analyzed in three dimensions - foreign trade, production and market-consuming. The author concludes that sanctions have a negative impact on the availability of food for low-income population groups and on the qualityof some products and yet have not had explicitly positive effect on national producers. To achieve a positive effect for agri-food complex and well-being of the bulk of the population, additional political steps to improve the state supporting and functioning of the institutes of agri-food complex are needed.

Russian Devaluation in 2014-2015: Falling into the Abyss or Window of Opportunities?

Mironov Valeriy

The fall in the oil prices from mid-2014 is causing a decrease in domestic demand and a strong devaluation of the ruble, which in turn promotes the growth of the price competitiveness of Russian producers, stimulates the supply side of the economy (especially in foreign markets, where there is no recession), and thus creates the possibility of offsetting the fall in domestic demand due to the growth of net exports. However, as the analysis of the economic literature, the world experience and current Russian economic trends demonstrates, the joint impact of oil prices and ruble devaluation on the growth rates of the Russian economy, with all its structural problems, can lead to a much more severe recession than the majority of experts, if to judge by average consensus estimates, expect in their forecasts (as of the end of September 2015).

Structural Factors of Russian Economic Slowdown

Orlova Natalia, Egiev Sergey

This article considers structural factors of Russian economic slowdown, particularly capital stock dynamics and labor market. Potential growth as of 2015 is estimated with a multivariate filter. The results indicate the structural slowdown of Russian economic growth to 0.5-1.0% per year. Low growth rates call for a new development strategy as the import-substitution approach that framed economic policy since the 2000s has failed to prevent the slowdown. Export-oriented strategy is more promising but will be hard to implement in an environment of weak global demand. Productivity improvement, particularly in the state sector, is necessary for averting stagnation.

Sustainability of Russian Economy in the Mirror of the System Economic Theory

Kleiner George

The basic principles of economic sustainability are considered in the article from a strategic perspective, from the viewpoint of the system economic theory. The article consists of two parts. In the first part the concept of the dynamics of a national economy is portrayed as a recurring cycle of four phases of development: crisis, post-crisis, inter-crisis, and pre-crisis. The movement between the stages is synchronized with the changes in the role functions (leadership, opposition, neutrality, support) of the four principal macro subsystems of the economy and the sequence of phases of the life cycle of subsystems (maturity, renovation, formation, development). We consider as the key subsystems of economy (in the wider sense of the word): economic theory, socio-economic policy, management of the economy and economic practice (real economy). A new model of the distribution of roles of subsystems at various stages of the crisis cycle of the economy is proposed, allowing, during the formation of socio-economic strategy, for the consideration of the maximum potential of each subsystem and for identifying possible regulatory levers, affecting the duration of various stages of the crisis cycle of the economy. In the second part of the article the capabilities of the system economic theory in the analysis of economic sustainability and its principal subsystems are elaborated on; and the potential impact of the four system sectors of the economy (object, project, process, environment) on the development and stabilization of the economy will be analyzed, on this basis measures are proposed to ensure system economic sustainability.

The Myth of the "Culture Code" in Economic Research

Tambovtsev Vitaly

The paper is devoted to the critical analysis of today’s mainstream approach to the inclusion of the factor of culture in economic research. National culture is treated in this framework as a reified entity measured by societal values and is persistently included as a "culture code" throughout different contexts. The paper presents evidence contradicting this treatment, and an alternative methodology for economic analysis of cultural phenomena is suggested, namely that each mass cultural practice should be analyzed on a "case-by-case" basis, comparing stakeholders’ costs and benefits.

The Opportunities of Growth in the Environment of Currency Collapses in Russia and Financial Bubbles in the World

Ershov Mikhail

Introduction of the free-float regime of exchange rate of the Russian ruble coupled with the fall of oil prices led to sizeable ruble depreciation. All oil-exporters devalued their currencies, however the devaluation of the ruble was the most significant. Against the backdrop of remaining instability in the world economy where a lot of financial indicators reach their pre-crisis highs, it makes the global situation highly unstable and the creation of anti-crisis buffers and stabilizing mechanisms extremely relevant for Russia.

Trust: A National Project

Rozinskaya Natalia, Rozinskiy Ivan

This article deals with the genesis of general trust and social capital in contemporary Russia, which faces the external pressure. The low level of general trust is noted, its economic, social and everyday life implications are considered, an explanation of Russia’s lower than in western Europe level of trust is provided. Considering society’s level of trust and social capital as externalia, the authors conclude that there is a necessity to "produce" trust intentionally. Promotion of collective charity is proposed as a mechanism of such "production". It is stressed that in order to activate the potential of trust in a society, there is a need for ideological and symbolic basis linked to its history. Russian People’s Unity Day, understood as the birthday of Russian civil society, is proposed to be used in this respect.

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