Bashmakov Igor, Myshak Anna
This paper investigates costs and benefits associated with low-carbon economic development pathways realization to the mid XXI century. 30 scenarios covering practically all “visions of the future” were developed by several research groups based on scenario assumptions agreed upon in advance. It is shown that with a very high probability Russian energy-related GHG emissions will reach the peak before 2050, which will be at least 11% below the 1990 emission level. The height of the peak depends on portfolio of GHG emissions mitigation measures. Efforts to keep 2050 GHG emissions 25-30% below the 1990 level bring no GDP losses. GDP impact of deep GHG emission reduction - by 50% of the 1990 level - varies from plus 4% to minus 9%. Finally, very deep GHG emission reduction - by 80% - may bring GDP losses of over 10%.
Vinokurov Evgeny, Kulik Sergey, Spartak Andrey, Yurgens Igor
The report prepared for the Civil Initiatives Committee critically analyzes the EU “Eastern Partnership” project, its negative consequences for economic cooperation and partner relations in Big Europe. The study is based on expert assessments of financial and economic consequences of the current crisis in Ukraine, estimates of probable losses of the two most active members of “Eastern Partnership” - Ukraine and Moldova. The conclusion is made that it is expedient to establish a new basis for cooperation in Europe in order to end the Ukrainian crisis and overcome the “continental divide” in the region. The optimal decision will be reaching comprehensive agreements in the triangle EU-“Eastern Partnership” countries (first of all Ukraine)-Eurasian Economic Union with the perspective of signing all-embracing integration documents with the participation of all interested parties on the space from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
Introduction of the price regulatory mechanism based on the principle of equal profitability of domestic and export gas sales is announced in Russia. In this article the “price cap” mechanism is considered as a form of incentive regulation; the experience of using the external market price as an indicator of the “fair” price level in antitrust enforcement is presented. Analyzing the existing wholesale gas price formation mechanisms around the world we identify alternative indicators of the external market price for gas and compare levels and volatilities of the “base” internal gas prices calculated on their basis with the use of retrospective data.
Mishina Victoria, Khomyakova Lyubov
The article highlights integration processes and the rising demand for the use of national currencies. The creation of an integrated currency market of the Eurasian Economic Space should enhance the role of national currencies. Formation of the single exchange space would generate direct market quotes and conduct exchange operations with national currencies directly without US dollar and euro, carry out cross-border payments in national currencies.
This article aims at presenting a generalized picture of contemporary research in comparative analysis of the welfare state models. It also sketches the debates around the possible design of a unified comprehensive model of the welfare state and on the inclusion of new elements into the familiar typologies and classifications. The comparison of approaches to the welfare state modeling and the analysis of the combination of specific policy features in different countries provide an abundant material for advancing new programs and models of socio-economic development.
Bezrukikh Pavel, Bezrukikh (Jr.) Pavel
The article analyzes the dynamics of consumption of primary energy and production of electrical energy in the world for 1973-2012 and the volume of renewable energy. It is shown that in the crisis year of 20 0 9 there was a significant reduction in primary energy consumption and production of electrical energy. At the same time, renewable energy has developed rapidly, well above the rate of the world economy growth. The development of renewable energy is one of the most effective ways out of the crisis, taking into account its production regime, energy, environmental, social and economic efficiency. The forecast for the development of renewable energy for the period up to 2020, compiled by the IEA, is analyzed. It is shown that its assessment rates are conservative; the authors justify higher rates of development of renewable energy.
The article deals with the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in terms of its impact on deepening investment cooperation of the participating countries. Mutual investments of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia are estimated, the existing problems in this area are identified. The necessity to conclude the preferential investment agreement within future EAEU and create free investment zone that will give an impulse to all the system of economic interaction of the participating countries and also will open new opportunities for development of their cooperation with the third countries is shown.
The article is based on statistics of monitoring of Russian FDI in the CIS and other Eurasian countries which is being conducted under the author's leadership in the IMEMO-Institute since 2011 with the financial support of the Eurasian Development Bank. Real distribution of the Russian outward FDI stock in the CIS and other neighboring countries is shown. It includes data on FDI via offshores. Motives of Russian TNCs' activities are explained. It is stressed that full-fledge corporate integration in the CIS does not exist. Special attention is paid to the competition between Russian firms and TNCs from the EU and China in their investment expansion in Ukraine and Central Asia.
The article analyzes the current tendencies of economic development of Russia from the point of view of their influence on the social situation of the population. It examines the main risks that could affect the deterioration of this situation and possible consequences of their realization. The conclusion is that the social model, which is characterized by very high potential adaptability and does not motivate people to move to nationwide open protests, continues to operate in Russia. Only elite groups of Russian society can become the source of radical change provoked by growing economic problems.
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