The article deals with the analyzes of foreign investors role in Russian regions based on the data on the investment in fixed assets of organizations with foreign capital and the regions attractiveness for foreign and domestic investors based on non-budgetary investment to GRP. New approaches are suggested to quantitative assessment of branch specialization of regions (first of all for metal and oil and gas industry) and the volume of their markets, which are among the factors explaining inter-regional differences in the role of foreign capital. Also the importance of the state investment policy, the size of regional economy, offshore origin of foreign capital is shown.
Gurvich Evsey, Sokolov Ilya
In-depth analysis of international and Russia’s experiences with implementing fiscal rules is presented. Theoretical and empirical evidences are suggested in favor of retaining the present fiscal rules with some modifications aimed at ensuring: a) a relatively stable level of federal budget expenditure with guaranteed full execution of all commitments; b) countercyclical fiscal policy, based on flexibleand proper reaction to revenue changes; and c) robustness of fiscal rules to internal and external shocks. The main new features suggested include modified calculation of the oil base price, different measurement of cyclical fiscal revenues, lower size of structural fiscal balance, and thorough specification of sources for each item of the balance. The modified rules envisage increased flexibility by relaxing to a pre-set extent and for a pre-set time spending limits in response to extreme shocks. The suggested version of fiscal rules has been tested by application to historical data for 2005-2015, and macro projections for 2015-2025.
In this essay, the author addresses four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries - developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.
Shastitko Andrey, Kurdin Alexander
This study analyzes the incentives for process innovations under different conditions determined by the competition policy for intellectual property rights (IPR) and particular features of markets and technologies. Competition policy is defined by the presence or absence of compulsory licensing, markets are characterized by technological leadership or technological competition. The results of modelling show that the uncertainty engendered by technological competition may lower the intensity of innovative activities, if there are no mechanisms of coordination between participants. Voluntary licensing generally improves social welfare but does not guarantee an increase in innovative efforts. Compulsory licensing can impede innovations due to the opportunistic behaviour of market participants but certain measures of state policy can prevent this negative effect.
Mkrtchyan Nikita, Florinskaya Yuliya
The article examines labor migration from small Russian towns: prevalence of the phenomenon, the direction and duration of trips, spheres of employment and earnings of migrants, social and economic benefits of migration for households. The representative surveys of households and migrant-workers by a standardized interview were conducted in four selected towns. Authors draw a conclusion about high labor spatial mobility of the population of small towns and existence of positive effects for migrant’s households and the economy of towns themselves.
Based on the data envelopment analysis methodology applied in the cross-country context with a metafrontier approach and window analysis, the article provides a technical efficiency estimate of the Russian agriculture. The group of countries included in the study comprises the CIS, BRIC, EU, and OECD members. The time interval is 1992-2007. The research has revealed low efficiency of the Russian agriculture among the CIS members and a relatively large technology gap with respect to advanced economies, but which tends to decline. The estimates also indicate growth of the Russian agricultural sector efficiency within the CIS beyond the time interval of the research.
The paper examines the impact of the embargo and sanctions on the agri-food markets in Russia. The analysis has shown that markets of milk and beef are experiencing serious problems. One of the main reasons for market volatility is a relatively low share of large enterprises with better adaptability in conditions of the embargo and sanctions and underdeveloped market infrastructure. The method that allows to quantify the consequences of the embargo and sanctions impact for the commodity markets is developed on the basis of a partial equilibrium model. The method has been tested on the meat markets (beef, pork, poultry). The estimates of changes in foreign trade, prices of producers and consumers, the dynamics of production, losses of budget, producers and consumers are provided. The results show that the budget suffers losses in all cases, and the markets with higher dependence on imports under the impact of the embargo and sanctions lose more in the welfare than those with less dependence. Poultry market has shown good stability and welfare under the embargo and sanctions due to high competition, mainly among large enterprises.