Gurvich Evsey, Belyakov Igor, Prilepskiy Ilya
Long-term trends in oil price are discussed in the article. We find out that both short- and long-term projections mainly extrapolate into the future current developments in hydrocarbon prices. Meanwhile both historical data and analysis of fundamental economic mechanisms reveal supercycles - price waves with large amplitude and length amounting to several decades. Implications for fiscal policy from oil price swings are considered. We demonstrate in particular that these swings ensure high returns on the oil fund operations due to substantial gap between exchange rates at the periods of fund replenishment and withdrawal. This makes the oil Reserve fund mechanism by far more profitable for the government than other potential investment tools.
The article discusses the fundamental issues of monetary policy in the context of implemented by the Bank of Russia transition to inflation targeting. It is shown that the result of the actions of the monetary authorities was the growth of inflation, worsening management of the financial market, falling investment and business activity, loss of control over the main macroeconomic indicators. It is revealed that “inflation targeting” actually refers to limiting the tools of monetary policy to manipulations by the key rate. It is proved that in conditions of free international movement of capital this approach does not achieve the inflation target due to supercritical dependence of the money market on foreign speculators. The necessity of a systematic approach to monetary policy with a set of control parameters corresponding to the complexity of monetary circulation is underlined.
The article argues that application of antimonopoly remedies can reallocate costs and benefits between market participants. Efforts of competition authorities to implement “price cap” indicators on concentrated markets do not always lead to reallocation of recourses to more efficient market participants and value added. A static choice of indicator can set up new adaptational risks. Also macroeconomic instability and shifts of distribution channels bring more uncertainty for business. The paper shows how much application of different price indicators for internal markets of export-oriented goods may cost to suppliers and consumers.
Balashov Aleksei, Martianova Yana
The article analyzes the effectiveness of the budget spending on the develop-ment of military-industrial complex in Russia. The authors assess the impact of re-industrialization policy on the competitiveness of the Russian economy. The research methodology is in the frames of the structural analysis. The Russian defense industry is investigated, basing on the statistics of the federal budget expenditures on national defense, as well as the expertise of government weapons programs. The authors conclude that the implementation of re-industrialization policy will support inefficient industries and sectors instead of eliminating the effect of factors that hinder economic development.
Apokin Alexander, Galimov Dmitry, Goloshchapova Irina, Salnikov Vladimir, Solntsev Oleg
This paper reviews the consequences of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Russia in 2014 for Russian ecomony in general, banking system and the real sector. Based on official statements, the new implied monetary policy principles for 2015 are outlined. The paper also proposes several policy measures to overcome the credit shock caused in part by over-tightening of monetary policy in 2014. It relies on Bank of Russia Monetary Policy reports and the article of Bank of Russia experts (Badasen et al., 2015) to illustrate the approach to economic analysis that led to a monetary policy-induced credit shock.
The article considers current problems of shadow economy, reveals its positive role and negative consequences for Russia and its regions. It is shown that shadow economy represents, on the one hand, a social stabilizer, the sphere of survival of a considerable part of the population, and on the other - a powerful factor of braking development of the society. Therefore the state policy has to be focused on active legalization of shadow economy.
The article analyzes social and economic factors that provide Russian attorneys an opportunity to compensate the institutional weakness of their profession, to protect the independency and effectively defend the interests of the clients. As an indicator of dependent position of attorney we use the proportion of cases with plea bargaining. Using the date of representative nationwide survey of 3317 attorneys in Russia we conclude that the independence of attorney is associated with‘resources for confrontation’: previous experience, client’s demand for legal services, communication with colleagues and membership in professional associations.
The paper contains an analysis of advantages and disadvantages of oil service outsourcing for national oil and gas industry. It is demonstrated that the dependence on foreign oil service providers may lead to technological obsolescence of national oil and oil service industries and enables foreign operators to regulate implicitly the effectiveness of the national economy. It is shown that the dependence of Russian oil companies on foreign oil service providers in 2014 is not corporate, but sectoral. This fact, due to high importance of oil and gas industry, produces high risks for Russia’s economy in general. Main ways of development of the Russian oil service industry under sectoral sanctions are described.
The foreign participation in USSR industrialization is considered to be a factor of institutional development of Soviet society. The paper considers the intellectual contribution of foreign specialists in the creation of important industrial projects. Foreign businessmen and specialists had considerable difficulties in their activity under influence of hostile institutional environment. Nevertheless, their professional success demonstrated the advantages of capitalism and conduced to dangerous spread of capitalist values into working class consciousness. Using repressions and propaganda, communist leaders institutionalized isolationism, i.e. watchful attitude to Western countries and belief in ability to solve any economic problem relying upon internal resources.