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Central bank policy under significant balance-of-payment shocks and structural shifts

Sinyakov Andrey, Yudaeva Ksenia

In this paper, we analyze a number of monetary and FX policy alternatives using the model of a small open oil-exporting economy hit by severe balance-of-payment shocks, such as those that simultaneously affected the Russian economy in 2014-2015. For our purposes, we modify Romer’s (2013) IS-MP general equilibrium model by adding a structure similar to the Russian economy (tradables and oil vs. non-tradables). In the model, we consider an optimal policy mix that includes a floating exchange rate, FX liquidity provision by a central bank and temporary tightening of monetary policy. The flexible exchange rate works as a shock absorber, helping restore aggregate demand and domestic production. If inflation expectations are not anchored, contractionary monetary policy helps to stabilize them. Financial stability risks are addressed by lending FX liquidity to the banking sector.

Development of the microfinance organizations market in Russia: The conflict of interests of investors, borrowers and the government

Karpushin Evgeny

The article analyzes the problems of functioning of Russian microfinance organizations (MFO), caused by a worsening economic situation in the country, an impoverishment of the population, and difficulties of attracting financial resources from banks. It grounds the necessity of MFO’s existence and adequacy of methods of their work. The basic tendencies of the given business development, experts opinions and forecasts are considered. Recommendations for perfecting the legislation directed at protection of interests of borrowers and microfinance organizations are formulated.

International differences in labor productivity: Role of capital, technological level and resource rent

Zaytsev Alexander

Using level accounting methodology this article examines sources of per capita GDP and labor productivity differences between Russia and developed and developing countries. It considers the role played by the following determinants in per capita GDP gap: per hour labor productivity, number of hours worked per worker and labor-population ratio. It is shown that labor productivity difference is the main reason of Russia’s lagging behind. Factors of Russia’s low labor productivity are then estimated. It is found that 33-39% of 2.5-5-times labor productivity gap (estimated for non-oil sector) between Russia and developed countries (US, Canada, Germany, Norway) is explained by lower capital-to-labor ratio and the latter 58-65% of the gap is due to lower technological level (multifactor productivity). Human capital level in Russia is almost the same as in developed countries, so it explains only 2-4% of labor productivity gap.

Labor supply elasticity in Russia

Klepikova Ekaterina

The paper estimates wage elasticity of labor supply in Russia - both intensive and extensive margins. Empirical research is based on the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - Higher School of Economics data for the period from 2004 to 2014. The study uses an adaptation of the Heckman selection model, estimation proceeds in four stages. It is shown that elasticity of the decision regarding hours worked is insignificant for all demographic groups with the exception of married women, for whom it is significantly negative. The elasticity regarding the decision to participate is positive, but quite low for people aged 25-54, and is much higher for those in the early retirement age. The possible application of the obtained estimates is demonstrated by measuring potential effect of personal income tax and pension system reforms on the labor supply.

Money mechanisms and the shifting mode of reproduction model

Mayevsky Vladimir, Andryushin Sergey, Malkov Sergey, Rubinstein Alexander

On the basis of the shifting mode of reproduction model it is shown that the transition of the Russian economic system to the growth stage is connected with its increasing monetization. Under the current monetary policy additional growth of money in the economy is possible through more active implementation of the new monetary mechanism, based on the reserve money of the central bank, issued for implementation of investment projects. Such a mechanism in conditions of a certain relationship among interest rates, rate of return, and the proportion between fiscal and credit emission for investment purposes calculated according to the model will create the necessary prerequisites for the transition of the Russian economy to the stage of growth.

Paradoxes of reservation wage setting in the Russian labor market.

Kapeliushnikov Rostislav, Lukyanova Anna

Using panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for 2006-2014, the paper investigates reservation wages setting in the Russian labor market. The second part of the paper provides an econometric analysis of main determinants of reservation wages. It shows that personal characteristics, household income, unemployment duration and characteristics of local labor markets are important factors that affect reservation wage setting. The findings also indicate that non-employed individuals with higher reservation wages have higher probability of re-employment and receive higher wages on their new jobs. A general conclusion is that Russian workers set reservation wages in economically rational way taking into account their real prospects in the labor market.

The Russian government approach to import substitution planning in industry

Manturov Denis, Nikitin Gleb, Osmakov Vasiliy

The article examines the conditions and results of the organization process of import substitution in the Russian industry. The approaches to forecasting, development of import substitution plans, realization of projects are described and proved. The key feature of the planning process is described: it is based not on traditional action plans and road maps but on the potential projects list. The product-project approach is proposed for forming long-term strategic planning documents.

Сandidates for the championship: Medium-sized high growth companies and state-run programs for their support

Medovnikov Dan, Oganesyan Tigran, Rozmirovich Stanislav

The phenomenon of high growth medium-sized companies is a major focus within industrial policy in recent years and it has induced an active discussion in many countries about the practicability of the use of state-backed support instruments designed to promote these firms. The new state project to provide support to private high-tech companies-leaders has started in June 2016 upon an initiative of the RF Ministry of Economic Development. The rating "TechUspekh" ("TechSuccess") has been chosen as the main database for further selection of the companies-participants of this project. The article describes main results obtained from the sampling study of the companies included in this rating in 2015 and also brings out a set of possible recommendations for state-backed support measures for such leading companies-"tech-gazelles". The last subsection is devoted to the review of the latest public support programs for the fast-growing mid-sized companies in a number of foreign countries.

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