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Analysis of the Bank of Russia information policy

Drobyshevsky Sergey, Trunin Pavel, Bozhechkova Alexandra, Gorunov Evgeny, Petrova Diana

The article investigates the Bank of Russia information policy using a new approach to measuring information effects on Russian data, including the analysis of the tonality of news reports, as well as internet users’ queries on Google. The efficiency of regulator’s information signals is studied using EGARCH-, VAR- models, as well as nonparametric tests. The authors conclude that the regulator communicates effectively in terms of the predictability of interest rate policy, the degree to which information signals affect the money and foreign exchange markets.

An Asian era with the Euro-Atlantic civilization as a background?

Kolodko Grzegorz W.

For years, the view has been repeated that Asia’s age is coming, and thus the position of both Europe and the United States is declining. The main factor behind these tectonic shifts in relative economic power and the associated geopolitical situation is the nearly four decades of rapid growth of Chinese economy. The achievements of other Southeast Asian countries, especially India, with robust growth are also meaningful with this regard. The article verifies these views and analyzes the different aspects of China’s confrontation with Europe and North America. The Asian dominance era is not coming, yet a relatively stronger position of the East at the cost of a weakening position of the West is emerging. Hence, a new multi-polar arrangement of forces in the global economy, without a hegemon, is being created.

Econometric estimation of the impact of oil prices shock on the Russian economy in VECM model

Polbin Andrey

The paper estimates terms of trade shock influence on the Russian output, gross investment and consumption using VECM model with exogenous variables. As a proxy for terms of trade we use oil prices. Empirical results demonstrate that a permanent oil price increase led to a short-run economic boom followed by a negative contribution to economic growth.

Fiscal policy as a source of economic growth

Kudrin Alexey, Knobel Alexander

We investigate mechanisms of budget expenditures structure influence on economic development. General government fiscal multiplier in various functional directions is estimated. We show that productive expenses in general have bigger multiplicative effect on GDP, than unproductive ones. By means of multiplicative effects models estimation for various functional items we calculate potential effect on economic growth of the budget maneuver in favor of productive expenses and the implemented effect of the recent years budget expenditures structure change. We show that resources redistribution from non-productive expenses to productive ones could increase long-term rates of economic growth approximately by 0,8 p. p. per year. On the contrary, the budget expenditures structure change observed during 2011-2017 has a negative impact on average annual rates of economic growth about 0,3 p. p. per year.

Inter-industry effects from Russian trade integration into the EAEU

Galimov Dmitry, Gnidchenko Andrey, Sabelnikova Ekaterina, Salnikov Vladimir

В статье с использованием методологии межотраслевого анализа уточняются представления о значимости отраслей в качестве потребителей и производителей промежуточной продукции и оценивается влияние интеграции в торговле товарами со странами Евразийского экономического союза (ЕАЭС) на выпуск и отдельные экономические показатели для России по видам деятельности. Показано, что структура выгод от торговой интеграции трансформируется при переходе к анализу в терминах добавленной стоимости: в химическом комплексе и машиностроении выгоды сокращаются, несмотря на сохранение лидирующих позиций этих отраслей, а в сфере услуг и промежуточных производствах, и прежде всего в добыче полезных ископаемых, - напротив, растут.

Measuring inflation expectations in Russia using stock market data

Zhemkov Mikhail, Kuznetsova Olga

This paper is devoted to the measurement of inflation expectations in Russia based on stock market data for the period from July 2015 to December 2016. It calculates the difference between the yields of the nominal and inflation-indexed government bonds and adjusts it to the inflation risk premium and liquidity risk premium to obtain inflation expectations. This net indicator represents inflation expectations of the participants of the stock market. The estimated inflation expectations can be used to analyze the effectiveness of the information policy.

On retroeconomy

Papava Vladimer

This paper analyzes the problem of technological backwardness of economy. In many mostly developing countries their economies use obsolete technologies. This can create the illusion that this or that business is prosperous. At the level of international competition, however, it is obvious that these types of firms do not have any chance for success. Retroeconomics as a theory of technological backwardness and its detrimental effect upon a country’s economy is considered in the paper. The role of the government is very important for overcoming the effects of retroeconomy. The phenomenon of retroeconomy is already quite deep-rooted throughout the world and it is essential to consolidate the attention of economists and politicians on this threat.

On the limits of the possibility of inflation targeting

Korishchenko Konstantin, Pilnik Nikolay

The purpose of this article is to identify the main determinants of consumer price growth in the Russian economy. To achieve this goal, the degree of influence on inflation of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, tariff regulation and ruble exchange rate has been determined in the course of the work. The econometric model of inflation formation is used as a research tool depending on the dynamics of the main factors. The article explores the reasons for the significant growth in the volatility of the dollar and, as a consequence, its impact on consumer inflation. According to the presented model, the main volatility generators are the volatility of oil prices and the policy regime of exchange rate management.

The odyssey of inflation targeting: To new challenges of monetary policy

Moiseev Sergey

What has happened to inflation targeting after a quarter of the century? The popular regime of monetary policy has experienced considerable changes. Central banks of developed economies received the double mandate; there were elements of monetary targeting, there was departure from an interest rate as the main instrument of monetary policy; innovations in communication policy are devoted to the disclosure of the forecast of future interest rate and alternative inflation estimates. There are deviations of the actual inflation from an inflation target, de facto moving from inflation targeting to hybrid regimes, and manipulation of inflation target in developing economies.

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