Drobyshevskiy Sergey, Kiyutsevskaya Anna, Trunin Pavel
On the basis of studying the evolution of goals and objectives of the monetary authorities of a wide range of countries the authors argue the inexpediency of expanding the Bank of Russia’s mandate. It fits into international practice, and also meets the requirements and characteristics of the present stage of economic development. In the pursuit of price stability, the regulator not only maintains the stability of the national currency, as required by the its mandate, but also contributes to the acceleration of economic growth.
Mogilat Anastasia, Achkasov Yury, Egorov Alexey, Klimovets Alexander, Donets Sofia
The article discusses approaches and instruments used in the Bank of Russia public analytical materials for analysis and forecast of macroeconomic conditions and monetary indicators. The authors focus on indicators of business cycle and monetary conditions, as crucial for monetary policy analysis. The attention is paid to issues most frequently discussed in scientific and expert literature, specifically, to new indicators and models presented in the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Reports in 2015.
The economists have so far paid little attention to the issues of the dollarization of the Russian economy and its financial system. This is inconsistent with the importance of the problem. As part of the solution of the problem of dedollarization the article proposes a proactive approach that involves, in addition to macroeconomic stabilization, changing prudential norms that regulate the banking sector, measures of institutional and fiscal nature which would increase the cost of foreign currency financial intermediation.
Moiseev Sergey, Pantina Irina
Developing countries typically exhibit a high degree of macroeconomic variablesinstability. This feature is particularly evident as regards the volatility of the real exchange rate. The concern with these destabilizing effects generatedby real exchange rate instability has prompted some developing countries to adopt real exchange rate targeting since the late 60’s. However, this policy produces an inflation bias. This paper reviews economic literature on theoretical frameworks and empirical evidences about effects of real exchange rate targeting.
Berdysheva Elena, Romanova Regina
This article decomposes the perception of prices by Russian consumers. The data of in-depth interviews with economically active residents of Moscow demonstrates that the interpretation of price can be thematized according to four main areas: "not to be deceived," "it is not a poor person who checks prices, but a smart one," "people ‘like me’ buy at those prices," and "not every product can be bought without regard to the price." The study shows that Russian consumers are more and more artfully mastering the grammar of the market price. Prudence in relation to prices and expenses is obtaining its own place among the cultural values in Russia where the ability to prodigious waste as an indicator of social success had been prevailing.
The paper presents a microstructure analysis of the crash of the Russian ruble in mid-December 2014. The author shows that the market break probably happened due to the execution of a large order that converted Russian rubles into U.S. dollars over a short period of a few days. Expirations of futures and options as well as possible front-running could have exacerbated the collapse of the Russian currency. The paper discusses measures taken by the Moscow Exchange and Bank of Russia during the episode and makes several recommendations to prevent a repetition of the similar events and provide an effective response in the face of future market breaks.
Murashov Yaroslav, Ratnikova Tatiana
In the proposed paper, an attempt is made to estimate the proportion of unstated income for Russian households based on micro data. An overview of microeconomic approaches to estimating the scale of under-reported income is provided. These approaches are poorly represented in the national literature, so their strengths and weaknesses are also analyzed. A theoretical model of household consumer behavior is described that allows the size of under-reported income to be estimated. The structure of household incomes and expenditures is studied based on an RLMS sample for 2012. The model is estimated using household subsamples based on the type of household and household income. The estimation technique utilizes regression variables and random effects. The resulting subsample estimates were applied to the general population and compared with those obtained by other researchers using alternative methods and other data. A comparison is made to estimates of under-reported income developed for British households.