Kosareva Nadezhda, Polidi Tatyana
The article presents a new methodology for estimating gross urban product in Russian cities under extremely low statistical data availability about urban economies performance. Gross urban product estimates provide new analytical instruments for assessing disparities in economic development between more than 1000 Russian cities and other areas, cities’ contribution to GDP and for comparing indicators of Russian cities with these of foreign countries.
The article analyzes the key properties of the basic institutional models of the 21st century - the quasi-market and contractual razdatok. It shows that as a result of institutional evolution, during which the razdatok and the market are improving their forms, a new reality is being formed, which is no longer in contrasting market and razdatok institutions, but in their synthesis. Integration of the market and razdatok occurs in two types of synthesis, and leads to the formation of either a quasi-market model or a contractual razdatok. The quasi-market is the reason for the rent-seeking motivation and stagnation of the economy, while the contractual razdatok is a new universal model, leading to dynamic growth.
Recently, the Bank of Russia has begun to actively fight against the balance sheet falsification in banking and withdrew every third bank’s license during the last four years. In the majority of cases, the regulator revealed hidden “holes” in the capital of bankrupted financial institutions; the total sum of already revealed negative capital amounts to -2,1% of Russian GDP in 2015. However, until now the process of clearing the banking system has affected only small and medium-sized banks (with few exceptions). What happens if this process touches on larger banks? How many new episodes of “holes” in the capital can we face in the near future and what is their potential size in case of detection? Our estimations, based on Heckman selection models, show that from 300 to400 out of 641 Russian banks that were active in the mid-2016 might already hide “holes” in the capital from -3,6% to -6,8% of GDP. The analysis at the level of different groups of banks - among the top 30 in terms of assets, other banks from the first hundred and banks outside the top 100 - shows that the greatest loss is localized in the last group.
All the first central banks were established in the form of private joint-stock companies. After World War II the majority of them were nationalized. However the small group of central banks continues to remain in private property. Though their financial activities do not differ from other central banks, private property has an essential influence on corporate governance.
The use of unmanned technologies can cause a decrease in the level of employment. The article discusses the compensation mechanisms and conflicting results of empirical studies. On the basis of internationally comparable methods, it was estimated that about 44% of the workers in Russia can be replaced, which is lower than in most developed countries. In the regions, specializing in the manufacturing industry, this value is higher, the least values are in the least developed regions. Some people will not be ready for life-long learning, competition with robots, and accordingly there is a possibility of their social exclusion in the future.
The new Basel III rules of macroprudential regulation were introduced for the Russian banking sector in 2014. This article analyzes a previously unexamined for Russia impact of capital adequacy ratio on the effectiveness of bank lending channel. It is shown that when banks satisfy capital regulation rules this has a direct influence on this channel of monetary transmission mechanism: a high capital adequacy ratio weakens a contractionary effect of an increase in the Bank of Russia key rate and further stimulates credit growth when the Bank of Russia decreases its key rate. The peculiar properties of the Bank of Russia key rate dynamics in the previous years allowed to reveal the asymmetry of monetary transmission. Such an analysis also reflects the value-added of the present study.
The article examines the economic issues related to the difficulties of creditors in obtaining funds after the bankruptcy of Russian banks at the present stage (2010-2016). It determines the amount of their financial and other losses, reveals the main problems that lead to low efficiency of forced refunds and grounds a set of innovative measures designed to reduce the huge losses of clients of liquidated bankrupt banks.
In the article theoretical and methodological grounds of the “power-property” concept and its implementation in the research of socio-economic formations - ancient eastern societies, Middle-age, Soviet and contemporary Russia - are analyzed. The author intends to show the fallacy of the rejection (which is inherent for this position) of the methodology based on materialistic interpretation of social phenomena. The fruitfulness of the explanation of economic formation of society and the system of property, based on the specificity of the mode of production, not on the authorities of power, is demonstrated. The discrepancy of the “power-property” concept with the facts, characterizing economic formation of ancient eastern society and Middle-age Russia is shown, and wrongfulness of approximation of the economic system of socialism with that of “Asian mode of production” is explained.
Causes of upheaval in the distribution of power among large advanced and emerging market economies in the XXI century, especially in industry output and international trade, are a topic of the paper. Problems of employment, financialization and income distribution inequality as consequences of globalization are identified as the most important. Causes of the depressed state of the EU and the eurozone are presented in a detailed review. In this content, PwC forecast of changes in the world economy by 2050, to the author's view, optimistically provides for wise and diligent economic policy.