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A survey of methods for macroeconomic forecasting:looking for perspective directions in russia

Pestova Anna, Mamonov Mikhail

The paper describes the evolution of macroeconomic theory in the XX century and the development of empirical models for applied macroeconomic forecasting. A comparison of modern structural and non-structural methods for macroeconomic forecasting is made. We consider the experience of macroeconomic forecasting in Russia and reveal its weaknesses and prospects for improvement.

Challenges of Russian economic development and government economic policy

Ulyukaev Alexey

The article analyzes the problems faced by the Russian economy, and response by the government economic policy. The author considers measures to address four key tasks that will maximize long-term economic growth: the reduction of direct and transaction costs, creation of conditions for the transformation of savings into investments, fostering investment activity through the mechanisms of state support, as well as the removal of demand constraints.

Economic strategy: Extrapolation or regularity?

Evstigneeva Ludmila, Evstigneev Ruben

In this article the authors concentrate upon the key questions, in the first place, upon the movement from object to subject and from the dichotomy “the state - the market” to the integral economic system. For the purposes of this research it has been important to comprehend economy within a context of long waves of conjuncture and a quantum nature of the market as integrity. In conclusion an attempt of comparative estimation of the present and synergetic approaches to strategy has been undertaken.

Estimation of socio-economic national losses as a result of road accidents in russia

Kolesnikova Darya, Karabchuk Tatyana, Salnikova Darya, Fattahov Timur

Every thirty minutes a person dies in a road traffic accident in Russia. Twenty five thousand people die annually, which is equivalent to the middle-populated city in the country. According to Traffic Police Statistics, much more people get wounded or disabled in road accidents. In order to reduce the number of deaths in car accidents it is necessary to implement specific measures, which require substantial public investment. Hence the relevance of more specific evaluation of socio-economic national losses arising because of death, disablement and traumatism in road traffic accidents. To make this possible, the authors have worked out the efficient methodology for estimating socio-economic national losses as a result of road accidents. According to our analysis, the total value of such losses equals 487.1 billion RUB in 2013.

Measuring economic value of cultural institutions: cultural sector efficiency in public policy

Bychkova Olga

Today, many cultural institutions like museums, theaters or libraries, are considered as major economic agents who can have a profound economic impact. This paper reviews different approaches to analyze economic value and efficiency of cultural institutions in public policy; it also discusses the major arguments that explain the evolving roles of those institutions in society. The shortcomings of the evaluation approaches are also discussed.

Program-target planning: Yesterday, today... tomorrow?

Tambovtsev Vitaly, Rozhdestvenskaya Irina

The paper considers the program-target method of planning implementation challenges in the current Russian situation. Reasons for its not so high efficacy are revealed, and recommendations for enhancing its deployment's efficiency in budget planning are formulated.

Russia’s economy: before the long transition

Akindinova Natalia, Kuzminov Yaroslav, Yasin Evgeny

The article shows the main stages and results of the economic development in Russia since the early 1990s. It describes the process of formation and the basic features of a three-sector economic model, as well as the reasons for its stability and existing constraints to economic growth. The authors consider the most likely scenario for the evolution of the current economic model under conditions of a steady decline in export revenues. They also focus on fiscal and social risks and alternatives in economic policy.

The effects of liberal reforms in Russian criminal law on conviction and sentencing of economic offenders

Chetverikova Irina

During the presidency of Dmitry Medvedev in 2008-2012 the Russian economy still remained highly regulated, so almost every economic activity could be recognized by the enforcement agencies as illegal. Under pressure of business some liberal reforms were launched in the criminal law and criminal procedure law related to economic crimes. The reforms were supposed to protect entrepreneurs from unwarranted prosecution and wrong conviction, and to make punishment less punitive. Using the data on 2 million defendants prosecuted for economic and property crimes in Russian criminal courts in 2009-2013, the paper examines how policy change affected the judicial decision making in criminal cases. Quasi-experimental design is used to test the impact of policy change on conviction and sentencing decisions. The results suggest that sentencing practices became more lenient rather due to the general changes in criminal law than the changes related specifically to economic offenders.

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