Вопросы экономики


Analysis of expert and official oil price forecasts

Gurvich Evsey T., Prilepskiy Ilya V.

The article studies the factors affecting formation of oil price forecasts by leading expert and official organizations (International Energy Agency, US Energy Information Administration, World Bank, OPEC, RF Ministry of Economic Development). It is demonstrated that all these forecasts take into account both oil market fundamentals and the current conjuncture, but the significance of these factors differs by agency. Non-linear dependence between forecast accuracy and horizon length is identified. The error is greatest for the projections 6 to 8 years ahead, which may be explained by the mismatch between the linear nature of the forecasts and the actual cyclical oil price dynamics during the last 50 years. Accuracy of short- to medium-term projections by the Ministry of Economic Development is shown to hold a median position among forecasting agencies, with the leading position held by the US Energy Information Administration.

Diaspora of economists and Russian economics: In search of common ground

Maltsev Alexander A.

The article summarizes the results of a survey of 77 representatives of the Russian diaspora of academic economists (RDAE) carried out in the summer of 2017. Its main purpose was to find out the differences in theoretical views between RDAE members and Russian economists. The analysis has shown that the existing theoretical and methodological discrepancies are not the main obstacle for strengthening the cooperation between the two scientific communities. A key factor constraining the deepening of RDAE’s participation in the Russian academic life is the continuing skepticism of some of the Russian economists concerning the ideas coming from “outside”, as well as the bureaucratization of the Russian scientific and educational sphere.

Impacts of Paris Agreement on Russian economy

Makarov Igor A., Henry Chen, Sergey V. Paltsev

The paper applies multiregional CGE Economic Policy Projection and Analysis (EPPA) model to analyze major risks the Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in 2015 brings to Russia. The authors come to the conclusion that if parties of the Agreement meet their targets that were set for 2030 it may lead to the decrease of average annual GDP growth rates by 0.2-0.3 p. p. Stricter climate policies beyond this year would bring GDP growth rates reduction in2035-2050 by additional 0.5 p. p. If Russia doesn't ratify Paris Agreement, these losses may increase. In order to mitigate these risks, diversification of Russian economy is required.

New technological revolution: Challenges and opportunities for Russia

Idrisov Georgy I., Knyaginin Vladimir N., Kudrin Alexey L., Rozhkova Elena S.

The article discusses the core changes, called the “new industrial revolution”. It addresses the challenges that Russia faces in its technological transition. Based on the cross-country analysis of the readiness to transition, we bring the target vision of the technological revolution for Russia. Risks and action scenarios are also evaluated, the main measures are proposed and the stages of their implementation are indicated. The aim of the article is to put the accelerated technological transformation in the list of priority goals for Russian economic policy. The article is based on the Center for Strategic Research report.

Nikolay Sieber in the history of prerevolutionary Russian economic thought

Shirokorad Leonid D.

This article shows how representatives of various theoretical currents in economics at different times in history interpreted the efforts of Nikolay Sieber in defending and developing Marxian economic theory and assessed his legacy and role in forming the Marxist school in Russian political economy. The article defines three stages in this process: publication of Sieber’s work dedicated to the analysis of the first volume of Marx’s Das Kapital and criticism of it by Russian opponents of Marxian economic theory; assessment of Sieber’s work by the narodniks, “Legal Marxists”, Georgiy Plekhanov, and Vladimir Lenin; the decline in interest in Sieber in light of the growing tendency towards an “organic synthesis” of the theory of marginal utility and the Marxist social viewpoint.

Potential of congress industry in Russia

Groshev Igor V., Krasnoslobodtsev Alexey A.

The article considers the present state and trends of development of congress industry on the world market of business tourism. Big potential and dynamics of development of Russian congress industry are noted. Peculiarities of attracting congress, exhibition and other events in order to improve the image and present Russian cities and regions on international and domestic markets of business tourism are studied. To promote Russia as a world congressional destination the international cooperation of Russian and international convention bureaus is needed.

Who was Nikolai Sieber? Contexts of intellectual biography

Raskov Danila E.

The article deals with the rethinking of the contexts of intellectual biography of Nikolai Ivanovich Sieber (1844-1888) known as a Russian Marxist and the classical political economist. Three such contexts of collective practices, which give us broader understanding of his role and place are in the focus of the paper: university work and life, scientific travels abroad and the relationships and networks around publishing. On the base of secondary literature and new archival sources the author reveals the meaning of these institutions reconstructing the networks and the circle of Sieber. The author shows that Sieber had a large and diverse network in scientific and publishing activities, but as a representative of Russian cosmopolitan intellectual elite could not be judged in too narrow terms of national or revolutionary movements.

World energy: Myths of the past and lessons of the future

Bashmakov Igor A.

The analysis of recent trends in the world energy development and of long-term energy development projections helps dispel 10 myths that have been viewed as copybook maxims, yet now are a barrier to forming an adequate vision of the future and effective development strategies. Many of these myths are rooted in the inability to see how the ‘small on small scale' becomes ‘big on big scale', and vice versa. Projection horizon to 2050 allows to see these metamorphoses, formulate the ‘lessons of the future' for Russia's economic development, and to show why Russia needs to change its economic model and switch to low-carbon development path.

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