The paper puts a set of questions: why the current account of oil exporting Russia is not only positive but also comparatively stable; what management of the balance of payments is made to support this surplus and how does it impact the economic development of Russia; what are the prospects of the evolution of the balance of payments in the light of tasks of national economy modernization? As a respond to the first two questions the paper analyzes the structure of the balance of payments and principal instruments used by the Bank of Russia to manage it as well as the contradictory impact of this management on economic development of the country. The scenario of active modernization of national economy is put forward as the basis for the analysis of the future evolution of the balance of payments of Russia.
Kochnev R. Yu., Polishchuk L.I., Rubin A. Yu.
We present the comparative analysis of the impact of centralized and decentralized corruption for private sector. Theory and empirical evidence point out to a “double jeopardy” of decentralized corruption which increases the burden of corruption upon private firms and weakens the incentives of bureaucracy to provide public production inputs, such as infrastructure. These outcomes are produced by simultaneous free-riding and the tragedy of the commons effects. The empirical part of the paper utilizes data of the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance project.
Drobyshevsky S.M., Idrisov G.I., Kaukin A.S., Pavlov P.N., Sinelnikov‑Murylev S.G.
The paper provides further development of the methodology of GDP growth rates decomposition, adapted for the case of Russia. It proposes the calculation of indicators of structural unemployment NAWRU and total factor productivity for the Russian economy. The paper offers estimates of structural, foreign trade and market components of GDP growth rates for various macroeconomic scenarios for 2018—2020. The sum of the components of the business cycle and random shocks is expected to be the main source of Russian GDP growth in 2018—2020, which together with the renewal of investment in 2017 may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. Within the framework of the considered macroeconomic scenarios an expected contribution of the terms of trade component will be of an order of –1 p. p. of the yearly GDP growth rates in 2018—2020. In all major macroeconomic scenarios the structural component of GDP growth rates is expected to continue to decelerate in 2018—2020. The results suggest that the delay of structural reforms is inadvisable in order to create the prerequisites to achieve economic growth rates equal to or more than the world average.
Bondarenko O. Yu.
his article explores theoretical and experimental approach to modeling social interactions. Communication and exchange of information with other people affect individual’s behavior in numerous areas. Generally, such influence is exerted by leaders, outstanding individuals who have a higher social status or expert knowledge. Social interactions are analyzed in the models of social learning, game theoretic models, conformity models, etc. However, there is a lack of formal models of asymmetric interactions. Such models could help elicit certain qualities characterizing higher social status and perception of status by other individuals, find the presence of leader influence and analyze its mechanism.
The paper is devoted to the analysis of conclusiveness of assertions that national cultural values influence the levels of national and regional economies, firms, and individuals innovative activity. These assertions are based on correlations between societal values and some innovative activity indicators, while presumable mechanisms of that impact are not described and empirically verified. It is shown that national culture representation by societal values is irrelevant, whereby any statements about culture influence on innovations appear unjustified. It means that additional studies relaying on different culture representations are necessary to understand what exactly and how components of national culture affect innovations.
Formation of the ecosystem of knowledge economy assumes creation of necessary institutional conditions. The most important elements of these conditions are property rights and mechanisms of their security. The paper discusses the questions of formation of institutional prerequisites of the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain and claims that the evolution of property land rights (land during a pre-industrial era was the basic common resource) provided exclusivity of the rights of large landowners. It also shows the importance in this process of the English educated and ruling class with its ideological and moral traditions, which were marked by the emphasis on individualism and subjectivity. It is concluded that one needs to carefully treat the recommendations based on the experience of the Industrial Revolution. In the knowledge economy, the efficient use of common resources (the main of them being information) for creating innovations involves the development of the distributed property rights system and its protection.
Simanovskiy A. Yu.
The article deals with the analysis of the economic nature of cryptocurrency, risks that arise from its use for economic turnover servicing, and consequences of different options of its probable legalization. Crypto-currency is deemed a money surrogate, a new kind of fiduciary money, having essentially no ground for trust, and an instrument of national wealth redistribution. The major way of crypto-currency existence is Ponzi scheme. Proposals are provided for limiting negative economic and social costs of crypto-currency use.
The article develops a transactional approach to studying science. Two concepts play a particularly important role: the institutional environment of science and scientific transaction. As an example, the North-American and Russian institutional environments of science are compared. It is shown that structures of scientific transactions (between peers, between the scholar and the academic administrator, between the professor and the student), transaction costs and the scope of academic freedom differ in these two cases. Transaction costs are non-zero in both cases, however. At the same time, it is hypothesized that a greater scope of academic freedom in the North American case may be a factor contributing to a higher scientific productivity.