The paper discusses the roots of the current global economic crisis and anti-crisis policies. The depth of the crisis is explained by interconnection of different factors, among others: globalization with the highest world economy growth rates that resulted in accumulation of deep disproportions; failures of economic policy in leading industrial nations (including pro-cyclical policy in the US); problems of Russian economic policy substantially deteriorated at the times of high oil prices; important changes in the technological basis of economic development. This is followed by the analysis of specific features of anti-crisis policy in Russia comparing with Western developed economies. Stagflation is considered to be the key challenge for Russia while other countries are fighting deflation.
The paper reviews the main tendencies of the oil market over the last several years. Given that the explosive growth in crude oil prices during 2007 - the first half of 2008 was caused by speculations the current drop is not a temporary relief in the course of commodities super-cycle and the boom has come to an end. Crude oil prices' ability to provide the sustainable development of the world economy seems to become the main principle of price formation during the foreseeable future.
The idea that comparative success of certain territorial centers of economic research is linked to the quality of institutions is currently widely recognized in the literature. The problem is however to identify the relevant level of institutions. The paper claims that the key role is played not by formal and informal norms of the society in general, but by specific institutions of scientific community, often significantly different from general norms in terms of incentives structure. The author also analyzes the labor market for economists as a factor of competition among scientific communities.
The paper is dedicated to the analysis of interrelation between institutions and innovations considered as a result of performance of the society's creative subsystem. The author pays much attention to the significance of the Second Economic Revolution (D. North) in construction of the institutional structure favoring innovations in the West as well as to its possible role in inducing the creative activity in Russia. The key conclusion of the paper is that market institutions are of secondary importance as an incentive for the creative work in the developed countries and all the more in Russia. An account of the institutions which played a major role in determining Russia's creative potential throughout its history is proposed.
The dependence of the Russian market and its participants on the international rating agencies undermines an adequate estimation of credit risks and the economic sovereignty of the country. Russia should create an independent, effective and reliable national system of ratings. The Summit of G20 recommended forming a framework of supervision of rating agencies. The article discusses the model of regulation which minimizes risks of activity of rating agencies. Possible norms concern unsolicited ratings or regulation of rating pricing, sanctions for incorrect ratings, rating standard, minimum capital requirements, etc.
The article considers macroeconomic reasons of the current crisis phenomena in Russia. Its genesis is presented in comparison with the crisis of 1998. On the basis of worsening macroeconomic conditions in Russia the author comes to the conclusion that in 2008 the global financial crisis became only the catalyst of the Russian crisis whereas its roots lay in deep disproportions in the recent economic development of the country. The way out of the situation can be found in the search of a new point of macroeconomic equilibrium with inevitably decreasing level of output.
This paper considers the economy-wide Russian energy efficiency potential. It is split by sectors and energy carriers and is presented in the form of an energy efficiency balance table for Russia. The assessment has shown that the Russian energy efficiency potential amounts to 45% of 2005 primary energy consumption, or 294 mtoe (excluding of gas flaring). This is about annual primary energy consumption in France, the U.K. or the Ukraine, half of energy consumption in Japan, and over 2% of global primary energy consumption. Related CO2 emission reduction is 50% of Russian 2005 emission. Special attention is given to methodological issues in aggregating potentials identified for each sector and to the evaluation of indirect energy efficiency gains. This study has found that the energy efficiency potential identified doubles, if associated energy use reduction in the energy production and transformation sector and technologic progress are accounted for. Cost curves for energy efficiency improvements have been developed using the incremental costs approach to identify the cost-effective part of the potential. Active government policy is needed in order to achieve the goal of 40% reduction of GDP energy intensity to 2020.
The paper reconstructs and analyzes N. P. Oganovsky's stadial theory as one оf the considerable achievements of Russian economic thought at the beginning of the XX century. Oganovsky broadened the comparative analysis into an original conception of the world historical process. He took into account geoeconomic, structural, social demografic, ecologycal and political and institutional aspects of social life. Oganovsky introduced the category of sustainable development; the article shows that in his theory the modern category of self-sustained economic growth was anticipated. Oganovsky's stadial approach is considered in an interdisciplinary context and associated with generalized conceptions of the political economy (German historical school, Marxism), Russian historiography (V. Klyuchevsky), agrarian cooperative thought (A. Chayanov) and geoeconomics (V. Semenov-Tyan-Shansky).
ГУРВИЧ Е., ВАКУЛЕНКО Е., КРИВЕНКО П.
The paper considers fiscal policy in countries that build on use of non-renewable natural resources. Size of the oil GDP, natural rent, and fiscal proceeds from the oil sector are estimated for Russia. These and similar parameters are compared across major oil-producing countries. Econometric procedure is suggested to measure overall impact of oil prices on fiscal performance accounting for all channels of influence. This approach is used to examine oil dependence of budget revenues and spending in five oil-exporting countries. We find that three of them (Iran, Venezuela, and Russia) demonstrate indications of a pro-cyclical fiscal policy.